禁漫天堂

Esendugue Greg Fonsah, 禁漫天堂 Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics
Julien Massonnat, ENSAT, Toulouse, France
Liz Wiggins, Georgia Institute of Technology
Gerard Krewer, 禁漫天堂 Department of Horticulture
Danny Stanaland, Bacon County Extension
John Ed Smith, Bacon County Extension

• Assumptions used in the economic analysis
• First year estimated establishment and maintenance cost
• Second year establishment and maintenance cost
• Third year establishment and maintenance costs
• Fourth year - full production costs
• Risk-rated returns over total costs
• Farm input prices
• Fixed costs
• Conclusion
• References
• Acknowledgments

In Georgia, three types of blueberries are grown: Rabbiteye (Vaccinium ashei), Northern Highbush (Vaccinium corymbosum L.), and Southern Highbush (Vaccinium corymbosum X Vaccinium darrowii). Rabbiteye is native to south Georgia, north Florida and southeast Alabama. It is the most commonly cultivated blueberry in Georgia. Northern Highbush is a species well adapted to northern Georgia due to its higher winter chilling requirement and lower heat tolerance. Southern Highbush is a hybrid between Northern Highbush and Darrow's Evergreen blueberry.

Both Southern Highbush and Rabbiteye have a low to moderate winter chilling requirement that allows for their production in the warm temperate climate of south Georgia. Rabbiteye blueberries are better adapted to mineral soils and easier to grow than Southern Highbush blueberries. Southern Highbush blueberries perform well on spodic soils with at least 3% organic matter or soils heavily amended with pine bark.

Blueberry yields in Georgia are currently lower than the United States average. Beginning in 2004, yields in Georgia have been nearly constant or decreasing whereas across the United States the yields are almost continuously increasing. In 2004, the yields were 5,120 lb per acre in the United States against 4,380 lb per acre in Georgia. In 2009, the yields were 5,720 lb per acre in the United States—an increase of 12%—while in Georgia the yields were 4,100 lb per acre—a decrease of 6%. To be more competitive, Georgia blueberry producers have to increase their yields to match or better the U.S. values. This increase can occur through an improvement of the agricultural practices and a better mastery of blueberry cultivation (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Comparison of U.S. and Georgia blueberry yields: 2000 - 2009. (From "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary," by NASS, USDA).

Blueberries are sold both fresh and frozen in Georgia. The percentage of each varies from year to year, but equal amounts are often produced. The price difference between fresh and processed is substantial. Southern Highbush blueberries are all fresh-market and the cost of production is higher.

Figure 2. Fresh and processed blueberry prices in Georgia: 2000–2009. (From "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary," by NASS, USDA).

The prices of fresh and processed blueberries follow the same trend. Until 2007 there was an increasing trend in the price from $1.45 in 2000 to $3.10 in 2007 for fresh blueberries and from $0.75 to $1.42 for processed blueberries (this particular price extremity was a result of very poor production that year). There has been a price decrease since the spike in 2007; in 2009, the price for fresh blueberries was $2.00 and $0.48 for processed. The price increase in fresh blueberries may be due in part to the increased amount of Southern Highbush plants being planted (Figure 2).

Assumptions Used in the Economic Analysis

Although there are several ways of doing a budget, this economic analysis adopted the risk-rated method. The risk-rated return assumes five different yields and prices per pound at the top of the budget, namely: “Best,” “Optimum,” “Median,” “Pessimistic” and “Worst.” The Best and Worst yield or price levels were expected to occur very rarely. The Median yield and price level was expected 50% of the time. The Optimistic and Pessimistic levels would be anticipated to occur once in 6 years.

Planting distance used for this study was 4 ft by 10 ft even though growers are slowly adopting 2.5 ft by 10 ft. After planting and cultivation, it was assumed to have taken four years for the crop to attain full production. Variable interest rates of 7% of total operating/variable costs were used for each year. Cost per flat was based on custom packaging. Hired utilized labor was contracted at a flat rate of $9.00 per hour. Harvesting yields were calculated based on a 95% fruit recovery rate; thus, 5% field and packaging loss. The brokerage fee was 15%, with cooling and handling included. The overhead and management fee was 15% of the total operating/variable cost. Compounded recaptured costs were based on a 5% fixed interest rate, and the expected lifespan of a blueberry farm in the Georgia environment was 20 years. Machinery and equipment operation cost calculations were based on 10 acres and a 5% fixed interest rate.

The calculations included all the essential topics such as percentage use for crop, purchase price, salvage value, life span, depreciation, interest, tax and insurance. All equipment was assumed to be new. Solid set irrigation was calculated based on 10 acres with a sprinkler spacing of 40 ft by 45 ft and an 8-in. well capable of pumping about 600 gallons/minute. Risk-rated marketing prices and yields were obtained from growers and MBG Marketing Inc., while input and equipment prices were obtained from vendors and machinery dealers, respectively. The adopted variable interest rates for operating/variable costs were for short-term loans, while the fixed interest rates used for machinery and compounded establishment costs were for long-term loans (these rates were recommended and/or obtained from AgGeorgia Farm Credit). A detailed calculation breakdown of fixed machinery and equipment, irrigation and recaptured establishment costs may be provided upon request.

First-Year Estimated Establishment and Maintenance Cost

The first year in establishing Southern Highbush Blueberries is highly crucial in terms of workload and cost. This budget includes all returns and costs associated with producing this crop in Georgia. For this estimated analysis a planting distance of 4 ft by 10 ft was employed, amounting to 1,089 plants per acre at a cost of $2,450.45. Other notable cost components in land preparation include: stumping, pushing and burning, which costs $1,000 per acre; chopping, which costs $120 per acre; and milled pine bark at $800 for 20 tons. Fertilizers, along with pre- and postemergence weed control costs, equal $406.04, while pest and disease control costs were $255.71. The total operating cost for the first year amounted to $6,563.24. Fixed costs consisting of a tractor and equipment, overhead and management, and irrigation equaled a sum of $3,107.36. Both of these together determined the total establishment costs for 1 year: $9,670.60.

Second-Year Establishment and Maintenance Cost

During the second year, the number of times insecticide and fungicide was applied doubled. Correspondingly, the labor involved in spraying also doubled. As a whole, this had a major impact on the total variable cost. Furthermore, the total operating cost for Year 2 was $1,693.33, which is nearly five times less than Year 1. It was assumed that 500 lb would be harvested in Year 2, equivalent to 145 flats (3.3 lb containing 12 to 125 g clamshells) with a 95% packout rate.

Harvesting and marketing costs, including harvesting, custom packing, cooling, handling and brokerage fees, amounted to $2,984.35. Fixed costs similarly included tractor and equipment, overhead and management, and irrigation. These amounted to a cost of $2,376.87 and altogether give a total establishment cost of $7,045.55 for Year 2. Assuming a return from receipts of 1,615 lb with a 95% packout rate and a selling price of $3.00 per pound (median), gross receipts would be $4,845.00. This reduces the total establishment cost in this year to $2,209.55.

Third-Year Establishment and Maintenance Costs

In the third year, fungicide was the largest variable cost component at $369.00, followed closely by irrigation at $276.87. Although the cost of labor remained relatively the same, the total cost of pruning decreased significantly from $239.58 in Year 2 to only $36.00 in Year 3. Chemicals and labor for weed control amounted to $188.00, which was $51.00 lower than the previous year due to a decrease in the price of postemergence chemical. Fertilizers for this year amounted to $158.10 and insecticide cost only $48.00. Total operation cost for Year 3 was $1,693.33.

Total harvesting and marketing costs were $7,022.00. This included harvesting, custom packing, cooling, handling, and brokerage fees. Fixed costs, including tractor and equipment, overhead and management, and irrigation altogether cost $2,332.80. The overall total cost for Year 3 is $10,754.33. Assuming a return from receipts of 3,800 lb with a 95% packout rate and a selling price of $3.00 per pound, gross receipts were $11,400. Therefore, the total cost per acre resulted in a net gain of $645.67 in Year 3.

Fourth Year—Full Production Costs

In Year 4, the blueberry field is assumed to be in full production. The chemicals and labor required for disease and pest control contributed the most to the total variable cost at $501.00. Pruning and mechanical topping increased significantly with a sum of $314.58 in Year 4 versus $36.00 from the previous year. Irrigation amounted to $276.87, while weed control costs were $220.00. The cost of fertilizer remained the same as the year before at $158.10. Total pre-variable costs amounted to $1,706.17.

Total harvesting and marketing costs, including harvesting, custom packing, cooling, handling and brokerage fees were $12,288.50. Fixed costs include tractor and equipment, overhead and management, and irrigation, which altogether cost $3,418.18. Assuming a return from receipts of 7,000 lb with a 95% packout rate and a selling price of $3.00 per pound, gross receipts would be $21,000. This minus the total cost per acre of $17,412.82 equal a net gain of $3,587.18 in Year 4.

Risk-Rated Returns Over Total Costs

Table 5 indicates the probability of obtaining the various calculated risk-rated net returns over total costs. The “Returns ($)” row denotes seven different net returns possibilities. These returns reflect the variability of prices and yields in respect to the expected net return. The first “Chances (%)” row reflects the estimated percentage of obtaining the above net returns or more, and likewise the second “Chances (%)” row shows the estimated frequency of obtaining the above net returns or less. According to the risk-rated returns over total costs, the base budgeted net revenue was $3,587 with a 99% chance of making a profit under Georgia conditions.

Farm Input Prices

Many factors had direct or indirect impact on input prices, cost of production and profitability. Farmers use motor sizes (HP) that are commensurate with their future targeted acreages. Quantity discounts for items such as packing supplies were factors that also affected prices of some inputs. The cost estimate in this study reflects a combination of the current agricultural practices in Georgia, which have changed drastically from the past decade, and recommendations from 禁漫天堂 specialists. Prices used were actual prices obtained from vendors around the counties involved in blueberry production areas, excluding quantity discounts.

Fixed Costs

The fixed machinery cost in this study includes shielded herbicide sprayer, air-blast sprayer, rotary mower, tractor, fertilizer spreader, harrow and hand-sprayer. The following were taken into consideration in the calculations: percentage of use for Southern Highbush, purchase price, salvage value of equipment, lifespan, depreciation, interest, taxes and insurance, respectively. The calculation was based on 10 acres and a 5% fixed interest rate. The estimated fixed machinery cost per acre in this study was $795.22. Overhead and management cost was $255.93, or 15% of preharvest variable cost (Table 4).

Irrigation fixed cost per acre was $1,327.65 and included items such as pipes and fittings, sprinklers, 8-in.-deep well, pump and motor, check valves, filter, meter base, cut off valve, water tank, miscellaneous items, and installation. The following were taken into consideration in the calculations: percentage of use for Southern Highbush, purchase price, salvage value of equipment, lifespan, depreciation, interest, taxes, and insurance. The calculation was also based on 10 acres and a 5% fixed interest rate (Table 4).

While the annual compounded recaptured establishment cost was $1,039.38, the fixed compounded interest rate used was 5%. We used 20 years in our calculations because we believe that a well-managed Southern Highbush blueberry farm in Georgia would last that long before it would need to be replanted. A detailed calculation breakdown of fixed machinery and equipment, irrigation and recaptured establishment costs may be provided upon request (Table 4).

Conclusion

Georgia is the fourth- or fifth-highest producer of cultivated blueberries in the U.S., with almost 10% of production. Marketing and economic analysis were carried out to determine why the blueberry industry in Georgia has experienced tremendous growth. A risk-rated returns over total costs revealed that the base budgeted net revenue was $3,587 with a 99% chance of making a profit under Georgia conditions. Such a return on investment per acre indicates that the industry is vibrant.

References

Fonsah, E. G., Krewer, G., Harrison, K., & Bruorton, M. (2004). Economic Analysis of Producing Southern Highbush Blueberries in Soil in Georgia (Publication AGECON-04-93). Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia.

Fonsah, E. G., Krewer, G., Harrison, K., & Bruorton, M. (2007). Risk Rated Economic Returns Analysis for Southern Highbush Blueberries in Soil in Georgia. HortTech, 17(4), 571–579.

Fonsah, E. G., Krewer, G., Harrison, K., & Stanaland, D. (2005). Estimated Costs and Economics for Rabbiteye Blueberries in Georgia (Publication AGECON-05-108). Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia.

Fonsah, E. G., Krewer, G., Harrison, K., & Stanaland, D. (2008). Economic Returns Using Risk Rated Budget Analysis for Rabbiteye Blueberries in Georgia. HortTech, 18, 506–515.

National Agricultural Statistics Service. (2011). Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts, 2010 Summary. U.S. Department of Agriculture.  

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by a Southern Region Small Fruit Consortium (SRSFC) grant for which the authors are indebted. The authors are also indebted to the growers and vendors who provided valuable information for this work.

Status and Revision History
Published on Jan 03, 2013
Published with Full Review on Dec 21, 2016